Updated for 2026 electricity rates and net metering rules.
Solar panels do not save the same amount of money everywhere. The same system on the same roof can pay for itself in six years in one state and twelve in another. Three things decide the difference:
- Your electricity rate. The higher your utility rate, the more every solar kilowatt-hour is worth.
- Your sun exposure. More usable sunlight means more energy produced per panel per year.
- Your net metering rule. This decides what your utility pays you for the solar power you send back to the grid.
Below is a quick national snapshot so you can see roughly where your state lands, followed by a much deeper breakdown of California, Texas, Florida, and Illinois, the four states Axia Estimate serves directly.
Solar Savings by State: National Snapshot
This table gives a directional view of how solar savings tend to rank nationally, based on typical electricity rates, sun exposure, and net metering rules. Your own numbers will depend on your specific utility, roof, and system size; use the calculator link below the table for a number built around your address.
| Tier | Typical states | Why they land here |
|---|---|---|
| Highest savings | Hawaii, California, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York | Very high electricity rates (often 28 to 45 cents per kWh) push the value of every solar kilowatt-hour up, even where net metering has weakened |
| Strong savings | New Jersey, Maryland, Rhode Island, Arizona, Nevada | Combination of solid sun exposure, decent rates, and generally favorable net metering or SREC markets |
| Moderate, incentive-driven savings | Illinois, Ohio, Minnesota, Pennsylvania | Mid-range rates and moderate sun, but strong state credit programs (like Illinois Shines) add meaningful value on top of bill savings |
| Fast payback, moderate rates | Florida, Texas, Georgia, South Carolina | Strong sun and rising rates; Florida’s full retail net metering makes it one of the fastest, simplest paybacks in the country |
| Lower relative savings | Washington, Oregon, and other low-rate, cloudier states | Lower electricity rates reduce the value of avoided usage, even with reasonable sun exposure |
Note: this snapshot is directional and meant to help you find your rough tier. For a state-by-state incentive breakdown, see our 2026 solar incentives guide. For your own numbers, use the solar savings calculator.
Axia Estimate’s Core Markets: California, Texas, Florida, and Illinois
Axia Estimate serves homeowners in these four states, and they sit at very different points on all three savings levers. Here is the side-by-side comparison, followed by what is actually happening in each state.
| State | Avg. monthly savings | Electricity rate | Peak sun hours/day | Est. payback period | Net metering |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | $120 | $0.27/kWh | 5.5 | ~5.8 years | NEM 3.0 export tariff (not full retail) |
| Texas | $95 | $0.13/kWh | 5.2 | ~6.5 years | No statewide mandate, varies by provider |
| Florida | $110 | $0.14/kWh | 5.3 | ~6.2 years | Full retail, 1:1 crediting |
| Illinois | $85 | $0.15/kWh | 4.2 | ~7.0 years | Retail credit carryover plus Illinois Shines |
California: high rates, harder net metering
California has the highest residential electricity rates of the four states, often 35 to 40 cents per kilowatt-hour and climbing most years. Sun exposure is excellent nearly statewide. On rate and production alone, California wins easily.
The complication is NEM 3.0, the export tariff that replaced full retail net metering in 2023. Key points:
- Surplus solar sent to the grid now earns a much smaller export rate than before.
- The best-value system in California now usually pairs solar with a battery, so you use your own production in the evening instead of exporting it cheaply.
- Even with that shift, California’s high rates keep savings strong for homeowners who size the system around self-consumption.
Read more: Is solar worth it in California after NEM 3.0?
Texas: cheap power, big sun, no statewide net metering
Texas flips California’s profile:
- Sun exposure is abundant, especially in central and western Texas, so per-panel production ranks among the best in the country.
- Electricity rates are lower and more variable, which shrinks the value of each avoided kilowatt-hour.
- There is no statewide net metering mandate. What you earn for surplus power depends entirely on your retail provider and plan, ranging from generous to nearly nothing.
The practical takeaway: Texas savings hinge on choosing the right retail plan and sizing the system to self-consume as much production as possible, rather than exporting.
Florida: rising bills, full retail net metering
Florida is the sweet spot that surprises people:
- Sun exposure is excellent.
- Rates are moderate but rising quickly as utilities pass through fuel and storm-hardening costs.
- The state still offers full retail net metering, meaning a kilowatt-hour exported at noon is credited at the same rate you’d pay to pull one back at night.
Because Florida homeowners capture close to the full value of their production without needing a battery to make the math work, it often has the fastest, simplest payback of the four states, as long as current net metering rules hold.
Illinois: less sun, stronger incentives
Illinois has the least sun exposure of the four states and mid-range electricity rates, which looks like the weakest case on the surface. What changes the math is policy:
- The Illinois Shines program pays homeowners for the renewable energy credits (RECs) their system generates, a block of value on top of ordinary bill savings.
- The state has historically offered net metering that credits exports at a favorable rate.
Illinois savings depend more heavily than the other three states on stacking these programs correctly. See the 2026 solar incentives guide before modeling an Illinois system.
Ranking the Four Core States
| If you care most about… | The winner is… | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Total dollars saved per month | California | Rates are so high that savings stay strong even after NEM 3.0 |
| Speed and simplicity of payback | Florida | Full retail net metering plus strong sun, no battery required |
| Getting the most out of plan choice | Texas | No statewide mandate means the right retail plan matters more than anywhere else |
| Stacking incentives on top of bill savings | Illinois | Illinois Shines credits close much of the gap left by lower sun exposure |
The right comparison for your household is never the state average; it’s your own bill, roof, and rate plan. That’s exactly what a personalized solar panel payback period estimate resolves.
How to Estimate Your Own Number in 3 Steps
- Find your real rate. Divide your last electric bill’s total dollar amount by the kilowatt-hours used. That blended rate, not the marketing rate, is what each solar kilowatt-hour is worth to you.
- Estimate your production. Multiply your planned system size in kilowatts by a rough annual production factor: about 1,600 kWh per kW in sunny California, Texas, and Florida, and closer to 1,200 kWh per kW in Illinois.
- Apply your net metering rule. In a full retail state, value all your production at your rate. In an export-tariff state like California under NEM 3.0, value self-consumed energy at your full rate and exported energy at the lower export rate. Check your number against how NEM 3.0 reshapes solar savings, then run it through the solar savings calculator to sanity-check it.
How Axia Estimate Builds a State-Specific Number
A national average hides exactly the differences that decide your return. Axia Estimate builds every estimate from local inputs, not a one-size number:
- Your actual utility rate and its recent trend
- The production your specific roof and climate support
- The net metering or incentive rules in force where you live
For California, that means modeling self-consumption and storage under NEM 3.0. For Florida and Texas, it means valuing exports under the local rule. For Illinois, it means folding in Illinois Shines credits. The output is one monthly and payback figure grounded in your state, not a blended number that fits nobody.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which state has the highest solar savings?
In total dollars saved per month, high-rate states like California and Hawaii usually lead, since electricity there often costs 30 to 45 cents per kilowatt-hour, so every generated kilowatt-hour is worth more. Among Axia Estimate’s core states, California leads on raw dollars, while Florida frequently wins on speed of payback because full retail net metering and strong sun let a system capture nearly all its production value without a battery.
What is the average solar savings by state?
Average savings vary widely, generally from a few hundred dollars a year in low-rate, lower-sun states up to $2,000 or more per year in high-rate states like California and Hawaii. Within Axia Estimate’s service area, monthly averages currently run about $120 in California, $110 in Florida, $95 in Texas, and $85 in Illinois. Your own number depends on your rate, roof, and system size.
Why do solar savings differ so much between states?
Three levers set your savings: the utility rate you avoid, how much sun your roof gets, and the net metering rule that decides what your surplus power is worth. Two identical systems can post very different returns because these three numbers point in different directions from state to state.
Does Texas have net metering?
Texas has no statewide net metering mandate. What you earn for surplus solar depends on your retail electricity provider and plan, ranging from generous credit to almost none. Because of that, Texas savings depend heavily on choosing the right plan and sizing the system to use most of its own production.
How does Illinois compete with less sunshine?
Illinois makes up for a cloudier climate with policy. The Illinois Shines program pays homeowners for the renewable energy credits their systems generate, and the state has offered favorable net metering. Those incentives add a block of value on top of ordinary bill savings, shortening payback despite lower production.
How do I estimate solar savings for my own state?
Divide your latest bill by the kilowatt-hours used to find your real rate, multiply your planned system size by your state’s production factor to estimate yearly output, then value that output using your local net metering rule. Self-used energy is worth your full rate everywhere, while exports are worth the full rate in retail net metering states and much less under export tariffs like California’s NEM 3.0.